The Foresight Gap: Why Your Last Success Is Building Your Next Crisis
Success hides fragility. Each growth stage plants the next crisis. The risk isn't debt but unseen debt across tech, culture, innovation, and governance. Make trade-offs visible, manage and pay them down, and build antifragile systems. Fast is fine. Blind is fatal. Track debt, hire for adaptability.
This article reflects lessons learned across the SaaS industry and from peers in product leadership. The perspectives are entirely my own and do not reflect or reference any current or past employer. Practices vary across companies and contexts.
TL;DR – Closing the Foresight Gap
Success creates hidden fragility. Every growth stage plants the seeds of the next crisis. The key isn’t avoiding debt, but it’s making it visible, managed, and paid down before it matures.
Here’s what leaders need to know:
- The Foresight Gap: Today’s wins often hide tomorrow’s risks: technical, cultural, innovation, and governance debts.
- The Real Danger: Not debt itself, but unseen debt: trade-offs made without awareness or accountability.
- It appears across stages:
- Startups → Fragile foundations from speed-over-structure choices.
- Scale-ups → Growth masks structural drag; “activity” replaces progress.
- Enterprises → Stability brings strength, but without vigilance, it risks slipping into inertia or innovation theater.
- AI Raises the Stakes: Opaque, unguided models create a new form of debt that can erode trust and block deals.
- The Antifragile Path: Build systems that grow stronger under stress by tracking debt, hiring for adaptability, and turning crises into learning.
If you only remember one thing:
Fast is fine. Blind is fatal.